Causal Structure of International Stock Markets
Stuart School of Business research presentation by: Associate Professor of Finance Li Cai and Jiachen Liu
Causal Structure of International Stock Markets
- Associate Professor of Finance Li Cai
- Jiachen Liu, Stuart Ph.D. student
Abstract:
This study examines the causal structure of international stock markets using causal discovery algorithms across a six-market system. Unlike methods that infer connections without an assumption of cause and effect, causal discovery methods strive to uncover genuine causal relationships directly from observational data. Our findings reveal significantly fewer causal links compared to previous studies. Notably, during recessions, the information in global stock markets is absorbed so rapidly that its influence rarely persists beyond a single day. In contrast, during non-recessions, the information from the previous day continues to affect returns, positioning the United States market as the dominant global stock market.
All Illinois Tech faculty, students, and staff are invited to attend.
The Friday Research Presentations series showcases ongoing academic research projects conducted by Stuart School of Business faculty and students, as well as guest presentations by Illinois Tech colleagues, business professionals, and faculty from other leading business schools.